The Shift of Power in the Crypto Guarantee Market: The Fall of Huione and the Rise of Xinbi’s Monopoly

In 2026, the cryptocurrency guarantee market underwent a "decentralized purge" that will go down in industry history.

As the old guarantee platform—the Huione/Tudou faction—collapsed under mounting pressure, the massive illicit liquidity empire they once anchored was handed over almost entirely in a matter of months. Latest data reveals that Xinbi Guarantee has not only inherited Tudou’s "estate" but has also achieved a near 100% monopoly through its closed-loop ecosystem.

Guarantee Platforms: The "Nasdaq" of the Underground

In the global gray and black markets, guarantee platforms have long transcended the simple definition of a "financial intermediary." They serve as the financial infrastructure for the shadow world, providing credit backing for irregular cross-border settlements, virtual goods, and complex illicit services—all while maintaining inextricable links with Southeast Asia cyber-fraud syndicates.

Operating primarily in USDT, the core business model relies on "Public Groups" :

• Modularized Business Units: Each Public Group functions as a vertical unit, covering the entire industrial chain from technical penetration and money laundering to physical smuggling.
• Credit Leasing: The platform leases its brand reputation to these groups by charging high "listing fees" and "security deposits."
• Traffic Aggregation: As a super-gateway, the platform funnels massive amounts of retail traffic into vetted Public Groups, creating a highly centralized "underground exchange."

The Great Traffic Migration: Tudou Zeroes Out, Xinbi’s "Vampiric" Takeover

Through a forensic analysis of monthly USDT inflows from 2021 to 2026, we can clearly observe two critical shifts in the market landscape.

1. The Stealth Succession: From Huione to Tudou

In the first half of the chart (2022-2024), the red area represents the former hegemon, Huione Guarantee. As regulatory pressure mounted, traffic began migrating to Tudou Guarantee (the extension of the red area). This move, dubbed "reincarnation" (秽土转生) by industry insiders, preserved their client base in the short term but sowed the seeds for systemic risks later on.

2. The Collapse of Tudou and Xinbi’s "Total Takeover"

Between late 2025 and early 2026, the red area (Tudou) suffered a catastrophic collapse, effectively zeroing out. Simultaneously, the gray area (Xinbi) experienced exponential growth, with monthly inflows peaking at over $1.2 billion USDT.

By March 2026, Xinbi had achieved an absolute monopoly. The survival space for smaller platforms (the blue area) has been squeezed to less than 2%.

Business Expansion: The Hegemony of Xinbi’s Ecosystem

While traffic charts show scale, the mapping of Xinbi’s Public Group network reveals the sheer depth of their operations.

Xinbi’s service distribution is granular to a chilling degree. It has evolved into a modular underground ecosystem. As shown in Figure 2, Xinbi has categorized its business into 11 major segments, covering every link of the illicit chain:

Upstream (Acquisition & Setup): Platform development, bot creation, and server/domain provisioning.

Midstream (Execution): SMS/Social media phishing, AI face-swapping, and specialized "ID Loan" services.

Downstream (Settlement & Laundering): Beyond standard USDT-to-Fiat exchanges, they have established dedicated "White Fund Groups" and "Card Merchant Services" to solve the "final mile" of fund extraction.

After establishing monitoring over 5,000 Xinbi-affiliated Public Groups, Bitrace mapped the intelligence of these addresses and groups. The complexity of this entity is staggering. Notably, groups labeled "QRcode-to-USDT(码接回U)" 、 "Card-to-USDT(卡接回U)" 、 "Card Merchant(卡商)" and "Currency Exchange(承兑)" constitute the primary merchant types, highlighting Xinbi’s heavy tilt toward money laundering services.

"Nuclear Deterrence" in Infrastructure: The Birth of SafeW

While Tudou still relied on third-party tools like Telegram, Xinbi pioneered the privatization of its infrastructure. In 2025, they launched their ultimate moat: SafeW.

What is SafeW? SafeW is a highly secure, cross-platform (iOS, Android, Windows, Linux) instant messaging app. On the surface, it is a Telegram-like encrypted tool; in reality, it is the vehicle for Xinbi’s ambition to bypass global risk controls.

• Evading TG Risk Controls: Facing Telegram's increasingly aggressive banning of groups and accounts, SafeW serves as a "safe harbor" for group owners and high-value clients.
• Traffic Sequestration: Through "SafeW Million Dollar Welfare Programs" and targeted traffic incentives, Xinbi is attempting to decouple its most profitable businesses from Telegram, migrating them to a fully owned, fully encrypted, and impenetrable SafeW environment.
• Integrated Guarantee Planning: Xinbi announcements explicitly state that SafeW Public Groups are now fully open. This signifies Xinbi is building an "Iron Curtain" environment that combines On-site Trading + Proprietary Communication + Private Settlement.

However, despite heavy promotion, the minuscule orange sliver in the traffic chart shows that SafeW’s actual conversion rate is abysmal. This is likely due to the "Fake Wallet Scams" Bitrace exposed in previous reports.

Closing Thoughts: A New Era, or Just Another Reincarnation?

Looking back from the vantage point of 2026, Xinbi’s current "Golden Age" feels more like a recurring footnote in a multi-year cycle. The shift from Huione to Tudou, and now to Xinbi, follows a brutal yet precise karmic curve:

• Glory and the Spotlight: Huione was once the financial backbone of Southeast Asia; Tudou was once seen as the invincible successor. Every hegemon believes they have built an unbreachable wall at the peak of their power. With $1.2 billion in monthly flow and an attempt to build an "Iron Curtain" with SafeW, Xinbi’s scale is unprecedented.
• The Return of Gravity: History teaches us that in this industry, the greater the traffic, the heavier the karma.Huione fell to persistent international regulation; Tudou collapsed from internal credit implosion. By absorbing 100% of the traffic, Xinbi has also inherited 100% of the "original sin."
• The Sanctions Variable: On March 26, 2026, the UK government issued the first formal global sanctions against Xinbi Guarantee. This marks a turning point: the new "King" of the guarantee market is now a primary target, elevated to a systemic financial threat in the eyes of sovereign states.

Does Xinbi have a future? Xinbi’s $1.2 billion monthly flow is both a trophy and a beacon for law enforcement. If history repeats, Xinbi will likely seek a new shell for another "reincarnation" when the pressure reaches its breaking point. However, 2026’s RegTech is not what it used to be. With the transparency of on-chain analysis and global judicial cooperation, the cost of remaining "invisible" is growing exponentially.

By trying to pull the business into the "black box" of SafeW, Xinbi has effectively turned itself into a blinking red light on the global regulatory radar.

Bitrace Warning: This article is intended for objective industry analysis and factual disclosure only. Cryptocurrency guarantee platforms are frequently involved in high-risk activities and cross-border compliance issues. Users and practitioners are urged to strictly abide by local laws and stay away from illicit transactions.

Bitrace: The Leader in Blockchain Security & RegTech We are committed to using AI and Big Data to provide cutting-edge on-chain AML and risk control support for global financial institutions and law enforcement. As the winner of the "Cyber Security Excellence Corporate Award" in 2025, Bitrace continues to guard the security boundaries of digital assets.

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